Even the world’s richest clubs, with the galaxy of stars at their disposal, will miss that one big player – think Kevin De Bruyne at Manchester City, Robert Lewandowski at Bayern Munich, Romelu Lukaku at Chelsea, and so on.
It, therefore, stands to reason that when a star man is absent through injury, suspension, or for any other reason, the chances of their club winning their next game lessen accordingly.
This is especially the case when a number of players in the same position are all side-lined at the same time. This can lead to catastrophic consequences as a manager seeks to patch up his team in makeshift fashion.
As we know, betting sites (check out UK Betting Sites for more information about the best sites) set their odds for football matches based on a number of factors: league position, form, motivation, home/away record, and so on. However, it’s actually punters who move the lines from that starting point, and this is typically as a result of breaking team news.
So, doing your football homework can be beneficial to your knowledge of the beautiful game and your bets – getting ahead of the game can actually make you money!
Moving the line
Let’s say that Manchester City are playing Everton at home. The bookmakers have set their lines, and they believe that the hosts are a sure-fire thing to win this game by a decent margin – pricing City as short as 2/7.
Now, let’s imagine that a sickness bug has swept through the City camp, and the likes of De Bruyne, Ederson, Aymeric Laporte and Bernardo Silva are all struck down and unable to play.
Punters start to pile into the draw and the Everton win instead, and the weight of money forces City’s odds to lengthen to 1/2 or similar.
If you knew of the situation brewing among the players at Pep Guardiola’s disposal, you would have known that their odds would lengthen – quite simply, their chance of winning the game is now a few percentage points less.
Conversely, Everton’s chances of winning are greater – if you had had a few pennies on them prior to the news story breaking, you would now be in a profitable situation given the odds movements. You could now cash out your bet at a profit – without a ball even being kicked.
Knowing me, knowing you
In football, we tend to be fixated by numbers.
Goals, assists, clean sheets, points – everything is quantified, and for good reason. However, anybody who has watched a lot of football knows that many teams have those players who make them tick without necessarily contributing eye-catching stats.
In football betting, we should use as much data as we can get our hands on when it comes to making our weekly selections, but we also have to consider those players who don’t always deliver quantifiable output – the colossal central defender, the midfield playmaker, the slippery winger. If they are injured or suspended, what impact does it have on their team’s chances of winning?
This is why it’s recommended that you only ever bet on teams/leagues that you know inside out. That knowledge could be the difference between success and otherwise.
